APEX Quick Look Financial Model

Generic Contract Tool · PSC · R/T · CPP · Service Contract · ±10% Screening Accuracy

Global Assumptions

Brent (flat, $/bbl) 70

Discount rate 15%

Gas price ($/MCF) 3.00

Cost Multipliers

CAPEX multiplier 1.00×

OPEX multiplier 1.00×

Pre-Finance Facility

Enable facility

Facility rate (%pa) 10%

Contract Type

Cost recovery then profit split. Contractor takes working interest.

Intervention Detail

Selected interventions from APEX Well Screener

Entitlement Split · 20-Year Wellhead Value

Revenue allocated by contract fiscal terms.

Net Production — Active Fields (BOPD)

Stacked by field. Dashed = govt / host baseline (where applicable).

Annual Net Equity Cash Flow ($MM)

Bars = annual; line = cumulative. Pre-financing shown as black line overlay.

20-Year Value Bridge ($MM)

Gross revenue → deductions → investor net.

CAPEX vs. Operating Cash Flow ($MM)

Bars = CAPEX deployment; line = pre-CAPEX operating CF. Red dots = years requiring external funding.

Portfolio Cash Flow Ledger

Contract Terms

Adjust sliders to modify the fiscal regime. The model recalculates instantly.

Effective Fiscal Terms — Active Portfolio

Government Take vs. Contractor Margin

Add up to 8 fields (oil or gas). Each field has independent plateau, ramp speed, CAPEX, and OPEX. Use the toggle to include/exclude fields from the portfolio. Field parameters feed directly into the financial model.

Individual Field Production Profiles (BOPD / MMSCF/D)

Field Metrics Summary

NPV Tornado — Driver Ranges

One-way sensitivity from base case. Low/high = ±25% or stated range.

Brent Sensitivity · Portfolio NPV ($MM)

NPV at discount rate shown in rail.

Two-Way Heat Map · NPV ($MM) — Brent × CAPEX Multiplier

IRR vs. Plateau Production (at base Brent)

Purpose & Accuracy

This tool is a ±10% screening-level financial model intended to quickly compare upstream investment opportunities across different fiscal regimes. It is not a bankable feasibility study. Results should be treated as directionally indicative only. All figures are rounded to the nearest $1MM. No contingency, inflation escalation, or FX adjustment is applied unless noted.

Accuracy statement: This model is calibrated to produce results within ±10% of a full-cycle deterministic model for brownfield redevelopment scenarios with reasonably well-defined reservoir parameters. Greenfield or exploration scenarios carry materially higher uncertainty. Do not use for investment decisions without independent engineering review.

Contract Types Modelled

Type	Contractor Revenue	Government Take	Typical Use
PSC — Production Sharing Contract	Cost oil recovery (up to cost recovery ceiling) + profit oil share	State royalty + profit oil share + income tax	Angola, Malaysia, Indonesia, Libya, Venezuela
R/T — Royalty / Tax	Gross revenue minus royalty minus OPEX/CAPEX minus income tax	Royalty (gross) + income tax on net income	USA, Canada, UK (UKCS), Norway, Australia
CPP — Contrato de Participación	Net production above PDVSA baseline; infrastructure provided as consideration	Baseline production + royalty (30%) on net	Venezuela (GL 52/56 framework)
Service Contract	Flat fee per barrel produced ($/BOE) irrespective of oil price	All commodity price upside above fee	Iraq, Kuwait, Middle East NOC models
JV — Joint Venture	Equity share of production net of royalty, OPEX, CAPEX, tax	Royalty + income tax on JV profits	Worldwide — NOC/IOC partnership model

Production Profile Engine

Ramp: Production builds from zero (or current baseline) to plateau using a user-selected ramp speed (slow = 5 years to plateau; fast = 1–2 years). The ramp follows a logistic (S-curve) function for oil fields and a faster build for gas fields.
Plateau: Held for a user-defined number of years (1–10 years), then declines.
Decline: Hyperbolic decline (b = 0.5 for oil, 0.3 for gas) from plateau to an economic limit or 20-year model horizon.
Gas fields: Reported in MMSCF/D; revenue = gas price × volume × 365 days. Gas BOE equivalence at 6 MCF/BOE for production display only.
Baseline: For CPP contracts, the PDVSA/host NOC declining baseline is estimated from initial production × 5%/yr decline.

Fiscal Calculations

PSC: Gross revenue → cost recovery (floored at cost recovery ceiling of gross) → profit oil split → contractor income tax applied to profit oil only.
R/T: Gross revenue → royalty (applied to gross) → taxable income (gross net of royalty, OPEX, CAPEX, depletion allowance) → income tax → contractor net.
CPP: Net production above declining baseline × (oil price − quality discount) × (1 − royalty rate). Infrastructure delivered as consideration is modelled as equivalent CAPEX offset.
Service: Flat $/BOE fee × gross production. Fee is real (not indexed). Contractor has no commodity price exposure.
JV: Equity share × (gross revenue − royalty − OPEX − CAPEX) − income tax on equity net income.
NPV: Standard discounted cash flow. Year 0 = model start year. Discount applied mid-year (i + 0.5 convention) for realism.
IRR: Bisection method, 120 iterations, searching −99% to +2000%.

Pre-Financing Facility

When enabled, the model simulates a reserve-backed prepayment facility (analogous to an offtake-linked advance). Draws occur in any year where net operating cash flow is negative. Interest accrues on the drawn balance at the rate set in the rail. Repayment is from positive cash flows. Peak debt, facility drawn, and LLCR (Loan Life Coverage Ratio, years 1–10) are reported on the Overview tab.

Access Tiers

Demo mode runs the model fully on the built-in test dataset — all global assumptions (Brent, discount rate, cost multipliers, financing) and every chart are live. Full access, unlocked by password, additionally enables contract-model switching, custom fiscal-term editing, and field building (add/remove/edit oil and gas fields) so the tool can be configured to a user's own dataset.

Request a password via the Request access button in the banner, which opens a pre-filled email to [email protected]. Note: the access gate is a client-side convenience control, not a security boundary.

Known Limitations

Flat real oil price assumption — no price deck escalation or strip pricing
No inflation escalation on OPEX or CAPEX
No FX risk modelling
Simplified tax treatment — no carry-forwards, ring-fencing, or signature bonuses (except where entered as a contract parameter)
Production profiles are idealised S-curves; actual profiles may differ significantly depending on reservoir heterogeneity
No decommissioning costs modelled
Gas fields use a single flat gas price; no take-or-pay, LNG tolling, or liquids uplift